MIA vs ATL
SP Ray Kerr vs Eury Pérez
Final: ATL 0 - 3 MIA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Braves has the edge in SP FIP (1pp). Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Braves has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Braves has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Braves has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Braves has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Braves has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Marlins ahead by 3pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Braves has the edge in SP FIP (1pp).
Braves edge · contribution -1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).
Braves edge · contribution -0.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.8pp).
Braves edge · contribution -0.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Braves @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time