SEA vs HOU
SP Ethan Pecko vs George Kirby
Final: HOU 5 - 6 SEA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (7pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 38pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (7pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +1.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.8pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +5.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Astros @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time