PHI vs MIL
SP Logan Henderson vs Aaron Nola
Final: MIL 4 - 1 PHI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (1pp). Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 33pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -1.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Brewers @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time