KCR vs CHW
SP Bryan Hudson vs Seth Lugo
Final: CHW 4 - 5 KCR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.9pp). White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.1pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). White Sox has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with White Sox ahead by 21pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.9pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -4.9pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.1pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -4.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
White Sox @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time