TEX vs NYM
SP Sean Manaea vs MacKenzie Gore
Final: NYM 6 - 3 TEX
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Rangers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rangers has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Rangers has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rangers ahead by 50pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp).
Mets edge · contribution -0.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Mets edge · contribution -0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Mets edge · contribution -0.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rangers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mets @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time