DET vs WSN
SP DJ Herz vs River Ryan
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (8pp). Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Tigers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.8pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Tigers ahead by 12pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (8pp).
Tigers edge · contribution +8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Tigers edge · contribution +1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.7pp).
Tigers edge · contribution +6.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Tigers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Nationals @ Tigers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time