BAL vs TOR
SP Trey Yesavage vs Shane Baz
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp). Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Orioles ahead by 28pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -1.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Blue Jays @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time