PIT vs KCR
SP Michael Wacha vs Lake Bachar
Final: KCR 3 - 4 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (9.5pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Pirates has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Pirates ahead by 43pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (9.5pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +9.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.9pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +7.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Royals @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time