STL vs WSN
SP Andrew Alvarez vs Michael McGreevy
Final: WSN 8 - 5 STL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (7.6pp). Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cardinals ahead by 18pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (7.6pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution +7.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution +0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.3pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution +6.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Nationals @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time