LAA vs MIN
SP Joe Ryan vs Reid Detmers
Final: MIN 5 - 6 LAA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Angels has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp). Angels has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Angels has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Twins has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Twins has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Angels has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Twins has the edge in Elo (0.8pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Angels ahead by 16pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Angels has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp).
Angels edge · contribution +2.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Angels has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Angels edge · contribution +0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Angels has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).
Angels edge · contribution +1.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Angels win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Twins @ Angels · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time