TEX vs TOR
SP Dylan Cease vs Kumar Rocker
Final: TOR 1 - 7 TEX
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (1.9pp). Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Rangers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Rangers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Rangers has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rangers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Rangers has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rangers ahead by 29pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (1.9pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -1.9pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.6pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -1.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rangers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Blue Jays @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time