HOU vs ATL
SP Tyler Mahle vs Peter Lambert
Final: ATL 6 - 2 HOU
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Braves has the edge in SP FIP (5.6pp). Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Braves has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Braves ahead by 1pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Braves has the edge in SP FIP (5.6pp).
Braves edge · contribution -5.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Braves edge · contribution -1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.7pp).
Braves edge · contribution -4.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Negligible gap in Lineup wOBA.
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Braves @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time