BAL vs MIL
SP Dustin May vs Cade Povich
Final: MIL 6 - 5 BAL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (4.6pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Brewers ahead by 12pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (4.6pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -4.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -1.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.8pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -3.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Brewers @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time