HOU vs KCR
SP Seth Lugo vs TBD
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Astros has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp). Astros has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.8pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 15pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Astros has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Astros has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Royals @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time