PIT vs MIL
SP Logan Henderson vs Jared Jones
Final: MIL 5 - 4 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Pirates has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.2pp). Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Brewers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Brewers ahead by 11pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -1.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -1.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Brewers @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time