MIN vs NYY
SP Carlos Rodón vs Zebby Matthews
Final: NYY 4 - 5 MIN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (7.1pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Twins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Twins has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Twins has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 28pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (7.1pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -7.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -1.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -5.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Twins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Yankees @ Twins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time