CHC vs ATL
SP JR Ritchie vs Shota Imanaga
Final: ATL 4 - 8 CHC
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Braves has the edge in SP FIP (7.3pp). Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Braves ahead by 9pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Braves has the edge in SP FIP (7.3pp).
Braves edge · contribution -7.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
Braves edge · contribution -0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.1pp).
Braves edge · contribution -6.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Braves @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time