ARI vs MIA
SP Ryan Gusto vs Merrill Kelly
Final: MIA 4 - 3 ARI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Marlins ahead by 7pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -1.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -1.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time