LAA vs SEA
SP Logan Gilbert vs Ryan Johnson
Final: SEA 1 - 2 LAA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Mariners has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Angels has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Angels has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Mariners has the edge in Elo (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Angels ahead by 11pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -0.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -0.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Angels win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mariners @ Angels · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time