SFG vs STL
SP Quinn Mathews vs Landen Roupp
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (1.6pp). Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Giants has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Giants has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Cardinals has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Giants ahead by 33pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (1.6pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -1.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.3pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -1.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Giants win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Giants · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time