MIA vs NYM
SP Sean Manaea vs Sandy Alcantara
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Mets has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Marlins has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.8pp). Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Mets has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Marlins ahead by 34pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +0.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Mets edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +0.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mets @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time