KCR vs ARI
SP Corbin Burnes vs Michael Wacha
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Royals ahead by 38pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -3.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time