CHW vs PIT
SP Bubba Chandler vs Sean Burke
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (5pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — White Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). White Sox has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with White Sox ahead by 2pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (5pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.2pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -4.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final White Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Pirates @ White Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time