BAL vs CLE
SP Tanner Bibee vs Brandon Young
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (2.6pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Guardians ahead by 17pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (2.6pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -2.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.2pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -2.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Guardians @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time