PHI vs ATL
SP Grant Holmes vs Jesús Luzardo
Final: ATL 0 - 1 PHI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.2pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.7pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Braves has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Braves has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Phillies has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Braves has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 58pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +3.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.7pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +1.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.7pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Braves has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Braves @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time