LAD vs CIN
SP Chase Burns vs Emmet Sheehan
Final: CIN 3 - 6 LAD
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (10.1pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp). Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (1pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).
Situational — Dodgers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Dodgers ahead by 59pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (10.1pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +10.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +2.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.4pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +8.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Dodgers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Reds @ Dodgers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time