ATH vs TOR
SP Dylan Cease vs Jacob Lopez
Final: TOR 5 - 6 ATH
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (10.9pp). Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Blue Jays has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp). Athletics has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Athletics has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (1.2pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Blue Jays ahead by 23pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (10.9pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -10.9pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.1pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -9.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Athletics win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Blue Jays @ Athletics · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time