PIT vs LAA
SP Walbert Ureña vs Paul Skenes
Final: LAA 0 - 1 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.2pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Pirates has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Angels has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Pirates ahead by 48pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.2pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +3.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.7pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +2.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Angels @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time