NYM vs SFG
SP Matt Wilkinson vs Nolan McLean
Final: SFG 6 - 10 NYM
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Batting & Roster — Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Giants has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Giants has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Giants has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Mets ahead by 6pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp).
Mets edge · contribution +1.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Mets edge · contribution +0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Mets edge · contribution +1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Giants edge
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Giants @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time