HOU vs ARI
SP Merrill Kelly vs Cristian Javier
Final: ARI 1 - 3 HOU
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Astros ahead by 2pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -2.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Negligible gap in SP xFIP.
Even
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -2.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time