MIN vs DET

SP Drew Anderson vs Dean Kremer

Twins 55%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp). Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).

Batting & Roster — Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Twins has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Twins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Twins has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Twins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Twins ahead by 10pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Tigers 3.98vsTwins 4.26

Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp).

Tigers edge · contribution -3.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Tigers 4.08vsTwins 4.39

Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).

Tigers edge · contribution -0.9pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Tigers 3.98vsTwins 4.26

Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).

Tigers edge · contribution -2.8pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Tigers 0.313vsTwins 0.320

Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).

Twins edge · contribution +0.4pp

WAR

weight 8%

Tigers 14.6vsTwins 17.2

Twins has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Twins edge · contribution +0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Tigers 20.0%vsTwins 30.0%

Twins has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Twins edge · contribution +5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Tigers 0%vsTwins 100%

Twins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Twins edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Tigers 0.317vsTwins 0.312

Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Tigers edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Tigers 8.2%vsTwins 7.8%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Tigers 1518vsTwins 1508

Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Tigers edge · contribution -0.2pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Twins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Tigers @ Twins · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Tigers vs Twins)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Tigers @ Twins1-11

Predicted:MIN→Actual MINCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time