LAA vs PHI

SP Cristopher Sánchez vs Ryan Johnson

Phillies 81%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (4.4pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Phillies has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Situational — Angels has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (25pp). Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 62pp.

Factor BalancePhillies favoredFactors 1:0(SP xFIP)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Phillies 3.79vsAngels 4.16

Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (4.4pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -4.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Phillies 3.52vsAngels 4.20

Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Phillies 3.79vsAngels 4.16

Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.7pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -3.7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Phillies 0.313vsAngels 0.304

Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.5pp

WAR

weight 8%

Phillies 11.4vsAngels 9.4

Phillies has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Phillies 80.0%vsAngels 30.0%

Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (25pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -25pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Phillies 0.319vsAngels 0.305

Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Phillies 7.3%vsAngels 8.1%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Phillies 1497vsAngels 1478

Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Angels win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Phillies @ Angels · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Phillies vs Angels)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-28Phillies @ Angels5-3

Predicted:PHI→Actual PHICorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time