ATH vs BAL
SP Shane Baz vs Jack Perkins
Final: BAL 5 - 3 ATH
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (10.4pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Athletics has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Elo (1.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Orioles ahead by 34pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (10.4pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -10.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.7pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -8.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Athletics win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Orioles @ Athletics · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time