ATH vs BAL

SP Shane Baz vs Jack Perkins

Orioles 67%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (10.4pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Situational — Athletics has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Elo (1.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Orioles ahead by 34pp.

Factor BalanceOrioles favoredFactors 3:0(SP FIP·Team WAR·PF)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Orioles 4.06vsAthletics 4.93

Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (10.4pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -10.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Orioles 4.23vsAthletics 4.58

Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Orioles 4.06vsAthletics 4.93

Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.7pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -8.7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Orioles 0.316vsAthletics 0.317

Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Athletics edge · contribution +0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Orioles 18.1vsAthletics 8.8

Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Orioles 40.0%vsAthletics 40.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Orioles 0.325vsAthletics 0.311

Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Orioles 8.8%vsAthletics 7.7%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Orioles 1503vsAthletics 1456

Orioles has the edge in Elo (1.2pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -1.2pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Athletics win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Orioles @ Athletics · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Orioles vs Athletics)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-28Orioles @ Athletics4-3

Predicted:BAL→Actual BALCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time