ATH vs MIN

SP Taj Bradley vs Gage Jump

Twins 61%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Twins has the edge in SP FIP (7.4pp). Twins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Twins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Twins has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Situational — Athletics has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Twins has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Twins has the edge in Elo (1.3pp). Twins has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Twins ahead by 22pp.

Factor BalanceTwins favoredFactors 2:0(SP FIP·PF)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Twins 4.32vsAthletics 4.94

Twins has the edge in SP FIP (7.4pp).

Twins edge · contribution -7.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Twins 4.44vsAthletics 4.58

Twins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).

Twins edge · contribution -0.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Twins 4.32vsAthletics 4.94

Twins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.2pp).

Twins edge · contribution -6.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Twins 0.318vsAthletics 0.316

Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Twins edge · contribution -0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Twins 15.4vsAthletics 11.5

Twins has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Twins edge · contribution -0.3pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Twins 40.0%vsAthletics 40.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Twins 67%vsAthletics 33%

Twins has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Twins edge · contribution -0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Twins 0.311vsAthletics 0.311

Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.

Even

Barrel%

weight 3%

Twins 7.9%vsAthletics 7.7%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Twins 1508vsAthletics 1456

Twins has the edge in Elo (1.3pp).

Twins edge · contribution -1.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Athletics win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Twins @ Athletics · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Twins vs Athletics)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-24Twins @ Athletics9-6

Predicted:MIN→Actual MINCorrect

2026-07-26Athletics @ Twins8-11

Predicted:MIN→Actual MINCorrect

2026-07-25Athletics @ Twins0-2

Predicted:MIN→Actual MINCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time