SP FIP
weight 12%White Sox 4.24vsCubs 4.70
White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (5.5pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -5.5pp
CHC vs CHW
CHW 53%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (5.5pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (0.8pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with White Sox ahead by 5pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%White Sox 4.33vsCubs 4.26
Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Cubs edge · contribution +0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%White Sox 4.24vsCubs 4.70
White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.6pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -4.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox 0.320vsCubs 0.333
Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cubs edge · contribution +0.7pp
WAR
weight 8%White Sox 17.7vsCubs 28.2
Cubs has the edge in WAR (0.8pp).
Cubs edge · contribution +0.8pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%White Sox 0.317vsCubs 0.321
Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Cubs edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%White Sox 8.5%vsCubs 7.3%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
White Sox @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (White Sox vs Cubs)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result