SP FIP
weight 12%Diamondbacks 4.34vsRed Sox 3.63
Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (8.5pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +8.5pp
BOS vs ARI
BOS 74%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (8.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 48pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Diamondbacks 4.49vsRed Sox 3.78
Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +2.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Diamondbacks 4.34vsRed Sox 3.63
Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +7.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Diamondbacks 0.313vsRed Sox 0.319
Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +0.3pp
WAR
weight 8%Diamondbacks 14.3vsRed Sox 15.9
Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +0.1pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Diamondbacks 0.312vsRed Sox 0.310
Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Diamondbacks 7.0%vsRed Sox 7.3%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Diamondbacks @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Diamondbacks vs Red Sox)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result