CLE vs SFG

CLE 62%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (2.6pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Giants has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Guardians has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Guardians ahead by 23pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Giants 4.17vsGuardians 3.95

Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (2.6pp).

Guardians edge · contribution +2.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Giants 4.39vsGuardians 3.91

Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).

Guardians edge · contribution +1.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Giants 4.17vsGuardians 3.95

Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.2pp).

Guardians edge · contribution +2.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Giants 0.311vsGuardians 0.303

Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).

Giants edge · contribution -0.4pp

WAR

weight 8%

Giants 11.1vsGuardians 13.9

Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Guardians edge · contribution +0.2pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Giants 0.310vsGuardians 0.304

Giants has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Giants edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Giants 7.2%vsGuardians 6.3%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Guardians win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Giants @ Guardians · final [15%, 85%] clamp