CIN vs STL
Final: STL 3 - 0 CIN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp). Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Cardinals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cardinals ahead by 16pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -6.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -5.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cardinals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative