SP FIP
weight 12%Cardinals 4.11vsReds 4.67
Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -6.7pp
CIN vs STL
STL 58%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp). Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Cardinals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cardinals ahead by 16pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cardinals 4.25vsReds 4.62
Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cardinals 4.11vsReds 4.67
Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -5.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cardinals 0.309vsReds 0.308
Cardinals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.1pp
WAR
weight 8%Cardinals 13.2vsReds 6.6
Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Cardinals 0.324vsReds 0.316
Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.2pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Cardinals 7.5%vsReds 9.2%
Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Reds edge · contribution +0.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Cardinals @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Cardinals vs Reds)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result