TOR vs NYY

NYY 54%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Yankees ahead by 9pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 3.99 / 3.67
SP xFIP: 4.06 / 3.74
Bullpen FIP: 3.99 / 3.67
Lineup wOBA: 0.299 / 0.316
WAR: 11.92 / 17.81
Lineup xwOBA: 0.294 / 0.321
Barrel%: 5.8 / 9.6

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Yankees @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp