MIN vs PHI

PHI 59%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.7pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Twins has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Twins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Phillies ahead by 18pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4.33 / 3.77
SP xFIP: 4.45 / 3.54
Bullpen FIP: 4.33 / 3.77
Lineup wOBA: 0.319 / 0.311
WAR: 14.68 / 10.38
Lineup xwOBA: 0.31 / 0.319
Barrel%: 8 / 7.5

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Twins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Phillies @ Twins · final [15%, 85%] clamp