CHC vs STL

STL 54%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (6.5pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.4pp).

Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Cardinals ahead by 8pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4.64 / 4.1
SP xFIP: 4.23 / 4.25
Bullpen FIP: 4.64 / 4.1
Lineup wOBA: 0.333 / 0.308
WAR: 27.2 / 12.02
Lineup xwOBA: 0.321 / 0.324
Barrel%: 7.2 / 7.4

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Cardinals @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp