HOU vs SEA

SEA 66%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (11.3pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.4pp).

Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).

Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 31pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4.69 / 3.75
SP xFIP: 4.52 / 3.86
Bullpen FIP: 4.69 / 3.75
Lineup wOBA: 0.319 / 0.303
WAR: 16.58 / 10.67
Lineup xwOBA: 0.317 / 0.318
Barrel%: 8.1 / 7.8

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Mariners @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp