WSN vs CHC
Final: CHC 0 - 7 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cubs has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Cubs has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Nationals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Cubs has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Negligible gap in Lineup wOBA.
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cubs @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative