MIA vs PIT
Final: PIT 2 - 8 MIA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Marlins ahead by 10pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +0.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +0.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Pirates @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative