STL vs PHI
Final: PHI 0 - 2 STL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.1pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cardinals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -3.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.1pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -2.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -3.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Phillies @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative