PHI vs TOR
Final: TOR 6 - 7 PHI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Phillies ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +1.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Blue Jays @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative