WSN vs CIN
Final: CIN 3 - 5 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Reds has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp). Nationals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Reds has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (1.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Nationals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Reds has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp).
Reds edge · contribution -1.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Nationals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Nationals edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Reds has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).
Reds edge · contribution -1.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Reds @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative