KCR vs CHC
Final: CHC 6 - 4 KCR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cubs has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Cubs has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.2pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.7 / 4.65
- SP xFIP
- 4.55 / 4.24
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.7 / 4.65
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.31 / 0.335
- WAR
- 12.86 / 27.66
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.31 / 0.322
- Barrel%
- 7.9 / 7.3
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Cubs @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp