NYY vs STL
Final: STL 0 - 2 NYY
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (5.2pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Yankees ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (5.2pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +5.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.3pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +4.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative