SEA vs MIN
Final: MIN 6 - 7 SEA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (6.6pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.7pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Twins has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Twins has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Mariners ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (6.6pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +6.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.7pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +1.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.5pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +5.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Twins @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative